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I have not seen anyone publish statistics on the average life of a gas WH. If I had to guess, I would say 12 to 15 years. Naturally, so go less, and some go longer. You are right in the average area at about 16 years. If you are not experiencing a lot of noise when running ( indicates mineral buildup) or any problems with water temp issues, and the heater is not located where if it did leak, it would cause major damage, then I would not necessarily run out and replace it.
I let mine go about 18 years, and recently replaced it "just because". Othere folks in my condo complex had to replace leaking tanks years eariler, and I know of at least 2 which are still original, and now at about 20 years old.
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